Impact of good governance, economic growth and universal health coverage on COVID-19 infection and case fatality rates in Africa.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted lives across all countries and communities. It significantly reduced the global economic output and dealt health systems across the world a serious blow. There is growing evidence showing the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact it has on health systems, which should help to draw lessons for further consolidating and realizing universal health coverage (UHC) in all countries, complemented by more substantial government commitment and good governance, and continued full implementation of crucial policies and plans to avert COVID-19 and similar pandemic threats in the future. Therefore, the objective of the study was to assess the impact of good governance, economic growth and UHC on the COVID-19 infection rate and case fatality rate (CFR) among African countries. METHODS: We employed an analytical ecological study design to assess the association between COVID-19 CFR and infection rate as dependent variables, and governance, economic development and UHC as independent variables. We extracted data from publicly available databases (i.e., Worldometer, Worldwide Governance Indicators, Our World in Data and WHO Global Health Observatory Repository). We employed a multivariable linear regression model to examine the association between the dependent variables and the set of explanatory variables. STATA version 14 software was used for data analysis. RESULTS: All 54 African countries were covered by this study. The median observed COVID-19 CFR and infection rate were 1.65% and 233.46%, respectively. Results of multiple regression analysis for predicting COVID-19 infection rate indicated that COVID-19 government response stringency index (ß = 0.038; 95% CI 0.001, 0.076; P = 0.046), per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (ß = 0.514; 95% CI 0.158, 0.87; P = 0.006) and infectious disease components of UHC (ß = 0.025; 95% CI 0.005, 0.045; P = 0.016) were associated with COVID-19 infection rates, while noncommunicable disease components of UHC (ß = -0.064; 95% CI -0.114; -0.015; P = 0.012), prevalence of obesity among adults (ß = 0.112; 95% CI 0.044; 0.18; P = 0.002) and per capita GDP (ß = -0.918; 95% CI -1.583; -0.254; P = 0.008) were associated with COVID-19 CFR. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that good governance practices, favourable economic indicators and UHC have a bearing on COVID-19 infection rate and CFR. Effective health system response through a primary healthcare approach and progressively taking measures to grow their economy and increase funding to the health sector to mitigate the risk of similar future pandemics would require African countries to move towards UHC, improve governance practices and ensure economic growth in order to reduce the impact of pandemics on populations.

Health-Related Quality of Life and Associated Factors Among Covid-19 Survivors. Experience from Ethiopian Treatment Centers.

Background: The pandemic of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19), which is extremely stressful and has an adverse effect on people's health-related quality of life (HRQoL), poses a serious threat to global public health. As a result, this study evaluated the health-related quality of life and associated factors among Covid-19 patients who were discharged from Ethiopian treatment centers. Methods: We conducted a multi-center, cross-sectional study among 493 Covid-19 survivors who had been discharged from treatment centers between 1st January 2020, and 20th October 2021. We collected respondents' data using validated Amharic version EuroQol 5-dimensional-5 levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire along with medical records of the patients. Differences in HRQOL scores between patient subgroups were tested by Mann-Whitney U or Kruskal-Wallis test, and the multivariable betaMix regression was used to investigate factors associated with HRQOL scores. Results: The EQ-5D and VAS median score for Covid-19 survivors was 0.940 (IQR: 0.783-0.966) and 87 (IQR: 70-91) respectively. Overall, married individuals, old-aged, individuals who had low educational status, high monthly income, comorbidities, admitted to the Intensive care Unit, received intranasal oxygen care, and prolonged hospitalization had lower utility scores and EQ-VAS scores compared to their counterparts. In multivariate betaMix regression, respondents' health status at admission, old age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, and hospital length of stay were significantly associated with the lower EQ-5D-Index value and EQ-VAS score. Conclusion: We found that Covid-19 infection had a persisting impact on the physical and psychosocial health of Covid-19 survivors. Age, having asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, having a worsening health state upon admission, and a prolonged hospital length of stay were significantly associated with the lower EQ-5D and EQ-VAS score. Therefore, the cost-effective psychological treatment such as cognitive behaviour therapy should be encouraged after hospitalization to improve the post-Covid-19 depression and fatigue.

The temporal positivity rate of SARS-CoV-2 in different clinical samples (preprint)

The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic value of different clinical samples from humans such as blood/serum, stool, and urine as compared to the routinely used nasopharyngeal swab samples for the detection of SARS-CoV2 in COVID-19 patients. We followed COVID-19 patients for three weeks and collected samples on three occasions that is, on the day of admission to the hospital (Day zero), after one week (Day-8), and after the second week (Day-15). The data shows that on the day of the admission of the patients, NPS has a 64% positivity rate, followed by stool, urine, and serum, 38%, 18%, and 17%, respectively. And we observed a nearly similar pattern of positivity rate in the subsequent week’s samples.

Cost-analysis of COVID-19 sample collection, diagnosis, and contact tracing in low resource setting: The case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has been responding to the COVID-19 pandemic through a combination of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, quarantine, testing, isolation, contact tracing, and clinical management. Estimating the resources consumed for COVID-19 prevention and control could inform efficient decision-making for epidemic/pandemic-prone diseases in the future. This study aims to estimate the unit cost of COVID-19 sample collection, laboratory diagnosis, and contact tracing in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: Primary and secondary data were collected to estimate the costs of COVID-19 sample collection, diagnosis, and contact tracing. A healthcare system perspective was used. We used a combination of micro-costing (bottom-up) and top-down approaches to estimate resources consumed and the unit costs of the interventions. We used available cost and outcome data between May and December 2020. The costs were classified into capital and recurrent inputs to estimate unit and total costs. We identified the cost drivers of the interventions. We reported the cost for the following outcome measures: (1) cost per sample collected, (2) cost per laboratory diagnosis, (3) cost per sample collected and laboratory diagnosis, (4) cost per contact traced, and (5) cost per COVID-19 positive test identified. We conducted one-way sensitivity analysis by varying the input parameters. All costs were reported in US dollars (USD). RESULTS: The unit cost per sample collected was USD 1.33. The unit cost of tracing a contact of an index case was USD 0.66. The unit cost of COVID-19 diagnosis, excluding the cost for sample collection was USD 3.91. The unit cost of sample collection per COVID-19 positive individual was USD 11.63. The unit cost for COVID-19 positive test through contact tracing was USD 54.00. The unit cost COVID-19 DNA PCR diagnosis for identifying COVID-19 positive individuals, excluding the sample collection and transport cost, was USD 37.70. The cost per COVID-19 positive case identified was USD 49.33 including both sample collection and laboratory diagnosis costs. Among the cost drivers, personnel cost (salary and food cost) takes the highest share for all interventions, ranging from 51-76% of the total cost. CONCLUSION: The costs of sample collection, diagnosis, and contact tracing for COVID-19 were high given the low per capita health expenditure in Ethiopia and other low-income settings. Since the personnel cost accounts for the highest cost, decision-makers should focus on minimizing this cost when faced with pandemic-prone diseases by strengthening the health system and using digital platforms. The findings of this study can help decision-makers prioritize and allocate resources for effective public health emergency response.

Survival analysis of COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia: A hospital-based study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a global public health problem causing high mortality worldwide. This study aimed to assess time to death and predictors of mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in the Arsi zone treatment center. METHOD: We performed a retrospective observational cohort study using medical records of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases hospitalized at Bokoji Hospital COVID-19 treatment center from 1st July 2020 to 5th March 2021. We extracted data on the patients' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics from medical records of hospitalized patients retrospectively. We carried out Kaplan Meier and Cox regression analysis to estimate survival probability and investigate predictors of COVID-19 death 5% level of significance. The Adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was estimated and interpreted for predictors of time to death in the final cox model. RESULT: A total of 422 COVID-19 patients treated were analyzed, of these more than one tenth (11.14%) deaths, with a mortality rate of 6.35 cases per 1000 person-days. The majority (87.2%) of deaths occurred within the first 14 days of admission, with a median time-to-death of nine (IQR: 8-12) days. We found patients that age between 31 and 45 years (aHR = 2.55; 95% CI: (1.03, 6.34), older than 46 years (aHR = 2.59 (1.27, 5.30), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR = 4.60, 95%CI: (2.37, 8.91), Chronic kidney disease (aHR = 5.58, 95%CI: (1.70, 18.37), HIV/AIDS (aHR = 3.66, 95%CI: (1.20, 11.10), admission to the Intensive care unit(aHR = 7.44, 95%CI: (1.82, 30.42), and being on intranasal oxygen care (aHR = 6.27, 95%CI: (2.75, 4.30) were independent risk factors increasing risk of death from COVID-19 disease than their counterparts. CONCLUSION: The risk of dying due to COVID-19 disease was higher among patients with HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and chronic kidney diseases. We also found that older people, those admitted to ICU, and patients who received intranasal oxygen care had a higher risk of dying due to COVID-19 disease. Therefore, close monitoring hospitalized patients that are old aged and those with comorbidities after hospitalization is crucial within the first ten days of admission.

Evaluation of health-related quality of life of Covid-19 patients: a hospital-based study in South Central Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Covid-19 causes a wide range of symptoms in patients, ranging from mild manifestations to severe disease and death. This study assessed the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and associated factors of Covid-19 patients using primary data from confirmed cases in South Central Ethiopia. METHODS: We employed a facility-based, cross-sectional study design and conducted the study at the Bokoji Hospital Covid-19 treatment centre. A structured questionnaire and the EQ-5D-3L scale were used to collect the data for analysis. The HRQOL results measured by the EQ-5D-3L tool were converted to a health state utility (HSU) using the Zimbabwe tariff. The average health utility index and HSU-visual analogue scale across diverse sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test or Kruskal-Wallis test. We employed a multiple linear regression to examine factors associated with HSU values simultaneously. The data were analysed using STATA version 15. RESULTS: The overall mean HSU score from the EQ-5D was 0.688 (SD: 0.285), and the median was 0.787 (IQR 0.596, 0.833). The mean HSU from the visual analogue scale score was 0.69 (SD: 0.129), with a median of 0.70 (IQR 0.60, 0.80). Those who received dexamethasone and intranasal oxygen supplement, those with comorbidity, those older than 55 years and those with a hospital stay of more than 15 days had significantly lower HSU scores than their counterparts (p < .001). CONCLUSION: Covid-19 substantially impaired the HRQOL of patients in Ethiopia, especially among elderly patients and those with comorbidity. Therefore, clinical follow-up and psychological treatment should be encouraged for these groups. Moreover, the health utility values from this study can be used to evaluate quality adjusted life years for future cost-effectiveness analyses of prevention and treatment interventions against Covid-19.

Evaluation of sample pooling for screening of SARS CoV-2

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has revealed the global public health importance of robust diagnostic testing. To overcome the challenge of nucleic acid (NA) extraction and testing kit availability, an efficient method is urgently needed. Objectives: To establish an efficient, time and resource-saving and cost-effective methods, and to propose an ad hoc pooling approach for mass screening of SARS-CoV-2.

Toward universal health coverage in the post-COVID-19 era.

All countries worldwide have signed up to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and have committed to the objective of achieving 'universal health coverage, including financial risk protection, access to quality essential health-care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all'. During the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond, advancement toward universal health coverage (UHC) will become more difficult for many countries, demonstrating that locally led priority setting is urgently needed to provide health services with appropriate financial protection to all. Because resources are limited and no national constituency can provide an unlimited number of services to their whole population in a sustainable manner, rationing and setting priorities for the selection of interventions to be included in a defined package of services is critical. In this Perspective, we discuss how packages of essential health services can be developed in resource-constrained settings, and detail how experts and the public can decide on principles and criteria, use a comprehensive array of analytical methods and choose which services to be provided free of charge. We illustrate these main steps while drawing on a recently conducted exercise of revising the national essential health services package in Ethiopia, which we compare with examples from other countries that have defined their essential benefits packages. This Perspective also provides recommendations for other low- and middle-income countries on their pathway to UHC.

Protecting essential health services in low-income and middle-income countries and humanitarian settings while responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In health outcomes terms, the poorest countries stand to lose the most from these disruptions. In this paper, we make the case for a rational approach to public sector health spending and decision making during and in the early recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on ethics and equity principles, it is crucial to ensure that patients not infected by COVID-19 continue to get access to healthcare and that the services they need continue to be resourced. We present a list of 120 essential non-COVID-19 health interventions that were adapted from the model health benefit packages developed by the Disease Control Priorities project.

Evaluation of Sample Pooling for Screening of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has revealed the global public health importance of robust diagnostic testing. To overcome the challenge of nucleic acid (NA) extraction and testing kit availability efficient method is urgently needed. Objectives: To establish an efficient, time and resource-saving and cost-effective methods, and to propose an ad hoc pooling approach for mass screening of SARS-CoV-2 Methods: Direct clinical sample and NA pooling approach was used for the standard reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test of the SARS CoV-2 targeting the envelop (E) and open reading frame (ORF1ab) genomic region of the virus. In this approach, experimental pools were created using SARS CoV-2 positive clinical samples spiked with up to 9 negative samples prior to NA extraction step to have a final extraction volume of 200L (maximum dilution factor of 10). Viral NA was also subsequently extracted from each pool and tested using the SARS CoV-2 RT-PCR assay. Results: We found that a single positive sample can be amplified and detected in pools of up to 7 samples depending on the ct value of the original sample, corresponding to high, medium, and low SARS CoV-2 viral copies/reaction. However, to minimize false negativity of the assay with pooling strategies and with unknown false negativity rate of the assay under validation, we recommend poling of 4 in 1 using the standard protocols of the assay, reagents and equipment. The predictive algorithm indicated a pooling ratio of 4 in 1 was expected to retain accuracy of the test irrespective of the ct value (relative RNA copy number) of the sample spiked and result in a 237% increase in testing efficiency. Conclusions: The approaches showed its concept in easily customized and resource-saving manner and would allow expanding of current screening capacities and enable the expansion of detection in the community.

Evaluation of Sample Pooling for Screening of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has revealed the global public health importance of robust diagnostic testing. To overcome the challenge of nucleic acid (NA) extraction and testing kit availability efficient method is urgently needed.Objectives: To establish an efficient, time and resource-saving and cost-effective methods, and to propose an ad hoc pooling approach for mass screening of SARS-CoV-2 Methods: Direct clinical sample and NA pooling approach was used for the standard reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test of the SARS CoV-2 targeting the envelop (E) and open reading frame (ORF1ab) genomic region of the virus. In this approach, experimental pools were created using SARS CoV-2 positive clinical samples spiked with up to 9 negative samples prior to NA extraction step to have a final extraction volume of 200μL (maximum dilution factor of 10). Viral NA was also subsequently extracted from each pool and tested using the SARS CoV-2 RT-PCR assay.Results:  We found that a single positive sample can be amplified and detected in pools of up to 7 samples depending on the ct value of the original sample, corresponding to high, medium, and low SARS CoV-2 viral copies/reaction. However, to minimize false negativity of the assay with pooling strategies and with unknown false negativity rate of the assay under validation, we recommend poling of 4 in 1 using the standard protocols of the assay, reagents and equipment. The predictive algorithm indicated a pooling ratio of 4 in 1 was expected to retain accuracy of the test irrespective of the ct value (relative ribonucleic acid RNA copy number) of the sample spiked and result in a 237% increase in testing efficiency. Conclusions: The approaches showed its concept in easily customized and resource-saving manner and would allow expanding of current screening capacities and enable the expansion of detection in the community.